American Idol: What went wrong?

Back in March I predicted that Angie Miller would win American Idol 2013 (Season 12). I reaffirmed my prediction two days ago. My prediction was based on two assumptions: 1) There is strong correlation between American Idol contestants’ Twitter popularity and their TV popularity. 2) The show is not rigged — i.e., the show’s outcome is indeed determined by viewers’ vote alone.

Last night Angie was eliminated from the show, rendering my prediction wrong. The simplest explanation is that Twitter popularity does not guarantee TV viewer votes. But that explanation doesn’t satisfy me. I will do some digging, and may speculate in a future post about what might have gone wrong with my prediction.

Angie Miller American Idol 2013 Twitter followers
Angie Miller was eliminated from American Idol 2013 despite having more Twitter followers than the other two contestants combined

11 comments

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  2. Arline

    I’ll tell you what went wrong – her voting phone #s were all disconnected/no longer in service for at least the first hour following the show on Wednesday. The online voting also did not go through when I put my votes to Angie – after 1 hour of failing to get a single vote through for her, I had to borrow someone’s smart phone to use the phone app and I am completely certain that this was an intentional rigging.

    • Thank you so much for your comment and valuable input. I am determined to do my best to get to the bottom of this for two reasons: 1) I am a fan of Angie’s and believe she deserved to win. 2) I am a fan of Twitter and believe it is a great tool for social pulse-taking. This giant discrepancy calls into question how representative Twitter usage is of the US population in general.

  3. boods

    you’re forgetting the south always rises. and also, largely, rednecks don’t tweet. so angie had a huge NE urban pop following, which is what twitter and instagram and alla that is geared towards. but kree and candice are both southern, both had RIDICULOUS home visits, (i’m from candice’s town, so i saw her live, and there were like, 10k people—you have to understand, beaufort county only HAS 12k people, so when we say that nearly everybody came out to support her? we’re not being facetious.) and kree looked like she packed that arena. also remember that, when idol did the twitter poll of what kind of music was the favorite, country music won. i’d be inclined to credit kree’s zooming past angie to the touching homestory, and delivering two straight up redmeat country songs that reminded texas that they wanted to vote for her.

    that said, i really do think the finale is ANYBODY’s guess. candice should win, since it is a singing competition, not a marketability competition, and she’s got both southern cred, and city cred (b/c she’s not doing country, natch.) which might be enough to overtake the idolcountry vote. maybe. if the previous 5 years of largely altrock altcountry allwhite finals haven’t completely eviscerated the non-country, non-southern, non-white viewing/voter block to such an extent that there’s no overcoming it.

    • Thank you for your comment, observations, and analysis. You are probably right — the show is not rigged, there’s just very little overlap between Twitter/Instagram users and southern TV viewers who vote multiple times on American Idol. See what happens this week.

  4. Pingback: Angie Miller already won American Idol
  5. steph

    I really didn’t care who won or who didn’t win this season as I usually don’t watch AI. But I was really intrigued when Angie didn’t pull it out because she had so many more twitter followers and youtube views. I can definitely buy the view that it’s geographical or a music taste thing- that country folk don’t tweet, etc… that is until Angie’s single had issues on iTunes last night and today. Her name has to be searched Angie “Miler” on iTunes to bring up You Set Me Free which has caused confusion amongst people looking for the song. Despite that, however, she still has over 1700 ratings(5 star) while Candice’s song only has over 450. Also, AI put their stamp on Angie’s single(which was written entirely by her) which means her song can’t chart while Kree and Candice’s doesn’t have the stamp and are able to chart. It’s all, at least, really interesting and worth looking into.

    • It is all very fishy, to say the least. I suppose that Angie and her camp are somehow contractually obligated to keep mum, because it’s impossible that they don’t see what we see.

      • steph

        They do see the same things as far as the song goes. Angie and her parents have tweeted about it without making a huge deal out of it. I don’t know why anyone would want to sign a contract that required them to keep mum about things like this… but, then again, it’s their music career.. so who knows.:)

        • It’s their career, and they believe the American Idol producers can make them or break them, and they are probably right, so they take the good with the bad and STFU.

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