Back in March I predicted that Angie Miller would win American Idol 2013 (Season 12). I reaffirmed my prediction two days ago. My prediction was based on two assumptions: 1) There is strong correlation between American Idol contestants’ Twitter popularity and their TV popularity. 2) The show is not rigged — i.e., the show’s outcome is indeed determined by viewers’ vote alone.
Last night Angie was eliminated from the show, rendering my prediction wrong. The simplest explanation is that Twitter popularity does not guarantee TV viewer votes. But that explanation doesn’t satisfy me. I will do some digging, and may speculate in a future post about what might have gone wrong with my prediction.