[UPDATE December 17, 2013] Below is the final A.T. Rank chart for this season of The Voice (Season 5). We predict that Tessanne Chin from Team Adam will be the winner, Jacquie Lee — the runner-up, and Will Champlin finishes third.
[UPDATE December 10, 2013] Having further tweaked the prediction algorithm, this is what things look like as of noon today. Cole Vosbury, Will Champlin and James Wolpert in the bottom three, smooth sailing for Tessanne Chin and Jacquie Lee. Cole Vosbury saved by Twitter vote, makes it to the finals.
[UPDATE December 04, 2013] The morning after: Recap.
Mixed bag last night. My algorithm correctly predicted that James Wolpert would be saved by the viewers, but totally missed the Cole Vosbury call (for the second time, I must add). For next week I have recruited a “human sensor”, whose input will factor in in the updated algorithm. Stay tuned.
[UPDATE December 03, 2013] Updated the predictive algorithm.
Introducing The A.T. Rank for The Voice
My original hypothesis that Twitter following alone can predict winners and losers on was proven wrong last week. So I set out to devise a more comprehensive, more sophisticated (and, hopefully, more accurate) predictive algorithm. The new algorithm combines the number of artists’ Twitter followers with other variables, and returns an “A.T. Rank” for each artist. Below is the A.T. Rank chart for today, December 03, 2013. According to the algorithm, Cole Vosbury will be eliminated tonight. James Wolpert will get to sing another week thanks to the Twitter “instant save”.
[UPDATE November 27, 2013] Yesterday’s eliminations showed without a doubt that Twitter following ALONE can’t be used as a predictor of success or elimination on The Voice. Not surprising. But I am not giving up on this prediction game.
Last week I felt in my gut that Ray and Caroline didn’t have “it”, whatever that means. Of course, this is easy to say now. But I will say that I ignored my “gut” and trusted “the numbers”, and this was a mistake.
If anything, yesterday’s results encouraged me to trust my gut more. So I cooked up a secret formula involving Twitter numbers and several “gut” ingredients, and tweaked it until it roughly produced yesterday’s output. According to the new algorithm, today’s A.T. Rank of The Voice artists is as follows:
- Jacquie Lee
- James Wolpert
- Tessanne Chin
- Cole Vosbury
- Will Champlin
- Matthew Schuler
Come back for an update next Tuesday, December 3, 2013.
[UPDATE November 26, 2013] Jersey girl Caroline Pennell surges in the Twitter followers popularity race. She is many kilotweets behind leader Tessanne Chin, but we know how well being on top of the leader board worked for Angie Miller on American Idol.
Below is a snapshot of the number of Twitter followers for the top eight artists, taken around 2:30 p.m. EST today. We see that while Jacquie Lee has a minuscule advantage in total numbers, Caroline has the momentum, having increased her total number of followers by over 50% since last week.
I predict that Cole Vosbury will be eliminated tonight. Then it’s a toss-up between James Wolpert and Ray Boudreaux for the second elimination.
Does Twitter popularity equal TV show popularity?
I posed the same question during American Idol Season 12 earlier this year. I hypothesized that Twitter popularity does indeed equal TV popularity, and went on to predict that Angie Miller would win American Idol in a landslide.
I was wrong. Many (conspiracy and other) theories exist about what happened and why it happened. I may revisit these theories again in a few weeks. For now I’ll just chalk up my erroneous American Idol prediction to my sample size of one TV show being too small to draw a meaningful conclusion about Twitter/TV popularity correlation.
So now I set out to conduct a similar analysis for NBC’s The Voice and its remaining ten contestants. Tonight’s show will announce the elimination of two contestants. According to this Twitter followers chart (below) Austin Jenckes, Cole Vosbury, and Kat Robichaud will be in the bottom three. Kat Robichaud will be saved by Twitter vote. Austin and Cole will go home.
Let’s see what happens.